"Without Tom DeLay it would be complete and total chaos," said one Republican strategist with close ties to the White House. "The House would descend into 'Lord of the Flies.' "
-- New York Times, October 8, 2004
Back in March, when DeLay's future first started to be seriously questioned, I posted a diary here explaining why it would be difficult to remove DeLay from power even if the White House wanted to - and there was evidence at the time that that might have been the case. The problem, in essence, was that he is the most entrenched Republican Leader in history, everybody else in leadership owes their power to him, and anybody else who poked their head up to dissent would quickly find it rolling on the floor.
DeLay has been in Washington a great deal longer than Bush and Rove, and through a combination of fear and love for the power DeLay has given them, there was not much evidence that the GOP House Conference was more loyal to President Bush and Karl Rove than they were to DeLay, particularly since President Bush would never have to run for re-election again and the Republicans in Congress would. That goes for Hastert especially, who has on occasion taken shots at the White House, but virtually never at DeLay. Small surprise, since
it was DeLay who got him the job. So, from that diary, these were the dynamic obstacles to a DeLay downfall...
Anybody in GOP Leadership right now is there because DeLay allowed them in. In addition to whatever loyalty this might inspire, there is a distinct chance that if DeLay goes down in flames he will take them all with him. All it would take is another small cadre of power-hungry Republicans advocating a cleansing of the party by throwing them all out with the bathwater. One particular reason such an insurgency would be effective is that everybody currently in GOP Leadership is tied up in some DeLay scandal or another, and as soon as they tried to step up the ladder, headlines would exclaim "DeLay Successor Tied to Many of His Scandals."
That link went to a post on a virtually unheard of Congressman who had been consistently a shade less loyal to DeLay than most. In fact I had been watching him for months, but watched much more closely after reading this quote from that same link...
"I don't want to run over anybody to get where I'm going," Wamp said. "I look forward to when you can get into leadership without running over anybody [and] without building a power base centered on money."
So now that insurgent campaign has arrived.
Rep. Wamp Announces Plans to Run for Majority Whip [Washington Post]
With DeLay's future uncertain, several GOP lawmakers signaled their eagerness to move into leadership posts. Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.) was the first to raise his hand, vowing to run for majority whip, the number three leadership post, and to challenge Rep. Eric I. Cantor (Va.), who is assisting with the job on an interim basis. Other possible candidates include Reps. John A. Boehner (Ohio), Mike Pence (Ind.) and Mike Rogers (Mich.), lawmakers said.
Running against Cantor is brash enough. Cantor has been profoundly loyal to DeLay and his brand of running the party, and for him to be shunted would be drastic. But this is the biggest sign of a coming civil war within the party...
"I don't think anyone expects Mr. Blunt to hold two positions for the next 15 months."
The Post emphasizes Wamp's insurgent position by noting that "Wamp is not considered a major player in the party and might have trouble winning a leadership race, particularly against Cantor." Indeed, in the Republican Party of one week ago, it would have been laughable. But he has an ace up his sleeve. He can run for Leadership, probably with others given his jab against Blunt, by "advocating a cleansing of the party by throwing them all out with the bathwater." Wamp has begun his campaign on a note of muted loyalty, with lines like this...
"Everyone is rooting for Tom DeLay," said Rep. Zach Wamp, a conservative Republican from Tennessee. But, "the reality of the ordeal he faces is not as rosy as everyone's hopes and aspirations," he said.
But should he choose to make a serious run, there is ample room for him to amp up his campaign. Should he decide to run on a sort of "fresh start, clean up the party" platform, he could brutalize Cantor, Blunt and others by putting forth the dichotomy of the dirty DeLay crowd vs. the clean breath of fresh air. If things got really heated, he could pull out the big guns and warn that a decision to stick with the status quo might soon lead to some deja vu...
DeLay has also shown support for causes important to Abramoff's clients. A source close to Abramoff who asked not to be named because of the continuing grand jury investigation said Abramoff lobbied DeLay's office to organize a June 2003 letter -- co-signed by DeLay, House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Deputy Whip Eric I. Cantor (R-Va.) -- that endorsed a view of gambling law benefiting the Coushattas' desire to block gambling competition by another tribe.
The letter, sent to Interior Secretary Gale A. Norton, said the House leaders opposed a plan by the Jena Band of Choctaw Indians to open a casino at a non-reservation site, expected at the time to be outside Shreveport, La., not far from a casino owned by the Coushattas. The intent of the letter, the source said, was to protect the income from the Coushattas' casino -- about $300 million a year.
V. Heather Sibbison, a lobbyist at the time for the Jena Band, said: "I do this for a living, and I have never seen a letter like that before. It was incredibly unusual for that group of people, who do not normally weigh in on Indian issues, to express such a strong opinion about a particular project not in any of their home states." [emphasis added]
He could then show them this headline, or one of dozens like it...
DeLay Indictment May Be Overshadowed by Looming Abramoff Probe [Bloomberg]
What would become of the Republican rank & file stuck in the middle? You guessed it: Lord of the Flies. If Wamp could make the leadership race into a national issue, every Republican would be forced to make a gut-wrenching vote that could potentially be the one to send them over the edge. They would have to either betray the leadership team that has so dominated them for years in a mutiny - almost always a deep danger if it fails - or be branded as a DeLay, Inc. dead-ender.
Indeed, Blunt has already shown himself to be an easy target for attacks alleging that nothing has changed with DeLay gone. And mind you, there is nobody in the Republican Party who can truly claim to be unconnected to the DeLay machine, so they will not get off that easy either. In fact, let's start now.
Zach Wamp:
Voting percentage with DeLay: 94%
Vote to weaken ethics rules: YES
Vote to repeal weakened ethics rules: YES
Votes to table Democratic solution: YES and YES
For the White House, the calculations might still be unsettled. While there is no re-election campaign coming for them, the necessity of keeping their House majority can be summed up with one image: Henry Waxman with a gavel and subpoena power. And needless to say, a House of Representatives with Nancy Pelosi as the first woman Speaker would bring a rather abrupt halt to the borrow-and-handout policies of DeLay, Inc. and Karl Rove. At the same time, while DeLay and Rove may not always have gotten along (what does one expect from two egos so large), they are in many ways kindred spirits. Their common governing philosophy is that the government is good for only one thing, namely funneling money to their donors, thus allowing them to shake down those donors for every last dime they have. As the New York Times notes today, the importance of DeLay, Inc.'s fundraising prowess is hard to overstate:
When a Texas grand jury indicted Representative Tom DeLay this week, it clamped off a financial pipeline that has fed millions of dollars to the Republican Party and its candidates in the last decade.
Though Mr. DeLay is one of the most prolific fund-raisers in Congress, campaign finance experts say that the criminal charge, born of a campaign finance scandal, will slow his ability to raise money. Many Republican lawmakers, especially those in close races, may shun appearances with Mr. DeLay. Some are already getting pressure to return money he gave them.
Not some - all. The DCCC has already put out press releases to every state in the nation prodding members to return their DeLay money. The stories will be popping up district by district over the coming days.
The Republicans will not be happy, but they will have their chance to vent this Sunday when the NRCC's Tom Reynolds will debate DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel on Meet the Press. Reynolds leapt to DeLay's defense immediately when he was indicted, issuing talking points and press releases fast and furious. There was previously talk of Reynolds making a rapid ascent into a top GOP Leadership position, perhaps even Speaker. Given that his chances of such a rise up the ranks depend on maintaining the Republican Majority he is responsible for protecting, along with the fact that his enthusiastic defense of DeLay will do him no favors in a tough race for his own seat, his stress level has probably gone up yet another notch...